Friday, 26 August 2011

Conquering The World On A Budget

Alberto Aquilani arrived in Milan yesterday to undergo a medical to finalise his transfer. The star recruit was flown in by budget plane company Rayan Air. It was a fantastic symbol of Milan's new business model and perhaps a fitting way to mark the end of the first transfer window to fall under the new Financial Fair Play rules.

If you ever have problems balancing the family budget - give Adriano Galliani a call. He sold a broken Kaka for £62 million and then went on an austerity drive. He has convinced Milan's superstars to take big wage cuts or find another home and he made some great deals last season, but this transfer window was his crowning glory.

Taiwo and Mexes signed for free before the end of last season and instantly a defence that had been the backbone of the sides scudetto victory got some much needed depth. He then move swiftly to sign up rising star Stephan El Shaarawy for a very reasonable £10 million. Now, thanks to the cheap fares of Rayan Air, Galliani has signed Alberto Aquilani on a loan with the ability to sign him permanently for £6 million spread over 3 years and convinced the player to slash his wages.

It's a massive effort. The total net spend on transfers is around
£20 million after securing Boateng and Amelia on a permanent basis and the first payment for Ibrahimovic. Considering other clubs have spent more than that on one player, Galliani is doing wonders for Milan in the brave new world of Michel Platini's FFP.

It does wonders for club president, Silvio Berlusconi. The under-fire Prime Minister of Italy is struggling to connect with the country he has lead on and off for almost 2 decades. If Milan wins more trophies this season he has a narrative to tell about how he can deliver success on a lean budget.

Wednesday, 24 August 2011

Milan's Progression - Building The Allegri Era

Sometimes it's hard to remember much Milan has changed in recent years. Their were the big last minute signings before the 2010/11 season, but there is also many familiar faces from as far back as the 2003 Champions League Final victory - the first triumph of the Ancelotti Era.

On the 28th of May 2003 Nesta, Gattuso, Pirlo, Seedorf, Inzaghi and Ambrosini all made appearances for the Rossoneri. Among them were Maldini and Costacurta - Rossoneri who had played their part in previous victorious Era's of Milan.

It's a signature of Berlusconi's ownership of the club. The champions, particularly the Italians, stay. There's a few mercenaries, we all remember the Rivaldo's and the Ronaldinho's, but the champions are always revered at Milan, always given powerful leadership roles within the club.

That explains why there was a lot of familiar faces in Allegri's Scudetto. Nesta, Gattuso, Ambrosini, Seedorf and Inzaghi will role out again this season.

Inzaghi has for a long time been a bit player that pops up at big moments in the season and winds back the clock - poaching goals nobody else would never even dare to attempt. Nesta's age and previous injury issues probably means he will start to transition to an Inzaghi-like role with Mexes taking some of the workload from him.

Seedorf, Gattuso and Ambrosini have all had to adjust to a variety of midfield roles to keep themselves in the team, but they've all managed to keep going and even took a pay-cut to stay at the club.

They will all role out for Milan again this season and in the big games most of them will probably be on the starting line XI. Does this mean Milan hasn't changed? Was last season an aberration as the club continues an inevitable decline?

I don't think so. I think it was the start of the old guard passing on the torch. The new generation - The Pato's, Silva's, Abate's, ect. now have experience of winning with Milan, they are part of the history, they understand what it takes and they have a taste for success.

And it came just in time. The truth is the winds of change were blowing. Scudetto victory or not, the old guard were losing their protected status after three trophy-less seasons and some horrid performances along the way. Change had already began.

Remember back two years to the start of the 2009/10 season. This is the starting line-up for the first two games:

Storari
Zambrotta-Silva-Nesta-Jankolovski
Gattuso-Pirlo-Flamini
Ronaldinho
Borriello-Pato

Last season, the best mix of the starting line-ups for the first handful of games was this

Abbiati
Bonera-Silva-Nesta-Antonini
Ambrosini-Pirlo-Boateng
Ronaldinho
Ibrahimovic-Pato

We also need to remember our bench has grown better and better over the last two years. In 2009/10, Borriello-Pato was far from an efficient, world beating forward line. They had promising moments, but nothing that struck fear into the top teams of Italy or Europe. However, if one of them was out injured - we rarely looked like we could win. The replacements were a big step down.

Ibrahimovic-Pato has had it's problems. At first they had trouble playing together and then Pato got injured. They seem to have developed a better understanding. However, the most encouraging thing for Milan is that if the two struggle there is Cassano, Robinho and Inzaghi waiting in the wings.

The midfield has been a slower revolution. Boateng has added much needed energy. Van Bommel has added steal in front of the centre-backs. Aquilani looks set to arrive this week and lower the average age of the midfield a bit more. Pirlo leaving for Juventus seems to indicate that Milan are willing to make the changes and almost all of Milan's older midfielders are off-contract at the end of the season.

Abate's rise at the back has saved the club from having to find a right-back. Taiwo's arrival might mean the left-back spot is sorted (despite his current injury). Yepes and Mexes mean we have a lot more depth than two years ago.

Injuries will mean that this isn't our line-up for Cagliari this weekend, but our best healthy team would look something like this:

Abbiati
Abate-Nesta-Silva-Taiwo
Ambrosini-van Bommel-Boateng
Cassano
Ibrahimovic-Pato

Compare it to the start of the 2009/10 season, or even last season, and you can see a massive difference in quality and a team that balances the strengths and weaknesses of the individuals a lot better.

I think Allegri could be like Ancelotti and oversee a five or so year period where Milan is at the top of Italy and Europe.

Tuesday, 23 August 2011

Wolverhampton Keep Manchester Company, Juve and Milan Face-Off, Spain Wait Another Week

So the EPL has seen the big clubs start sluggishly. The top 6-7 teams still look like they need another month of training in their legs before they can hit their straps. The two Manchester clubs have managed wins despite the cob webs and top the table along with the Wolverhampton Wolves.

It's been particularly barren in London so far. Tottenham, Fulham and Arsenal have failed to registered a win or even score a goal. QPR and Chelsea have won one each. London football fans could be in for a very long winter.

Juve and Milan played their annual friendly on the weekend. Milan paraded around their fresh and minty Super Coppa, which was a funny sight to see. Milan's line-up was indicative of their preseason - injuries and internationals have hampered a cohesive preparation and September could prove to be a tough month.

Milan won 2-1, but I think Juve would have taken the most positives out of it. I still think they are a transfer or two off being a contender, but if they can put together some results before Christmas I think they have enough quality to finish the season strongly once they've gelled as a team. The match was also Andrea Pirlo's first visit back to Milan to face his old club after a lot of fond memories.

A player strike cancelled the first weekend of La Liga. The players want the wages of lower league players to be guaranteed. With Real Madrid and Barcelona sucking up the lions share of revenue and the countries economy heading down the shitter, many smaller clubs have lost the ability to pay wages. The strike may continue this weekend.

And the problem isn't confined to Spain. While the inequalities in revenue distribution aren't quite as pronounced in Italy, they do exist. Italy's economy is also in terrible shape, if not worse state than Spain's economy and a large portion of professional football teams in the regions are struggling to guarantee players wages.

Lets hope they resolve the dispute quickly. Michel Platini's FFP might look like a masterstroke given the timing.

Tuesday, 16 August 2011

First El Clasico of the Season, Aguero Lights up City and Milan look to Montolivo

Real Madrid and Barcelona drew 2-2 in the first leg of the Spanish Supercopa. Neither side is at there peak yet, but there is certainly going to be a few more interesting matches between these two this season.

There is always a lot on the line for these two, but Madrid's pride must really be stingy. To spend the money they have during the current economic climate and get basically nothing in return is about as embarrassing as it gets. Jose Mourinho must be stinging the most. He is so open and boastful about his ego and he can't make his gazillion dollar squad win the trophies Madrid wants so bad. The Second leg should be great.

Aguero made a great debut for Man City. Tongues are wagging at the prospect of what he might achieve with the club this season. So much so that Carlos Tevez might be willing to stay in Manchester after saying he wanted to leave because Manchester was a terrible place to live.

AC Milan have been entertaining the prospect of signing Fiorentina's former captain, Riccardo Montolivo, all summer. It might be close to an eventuality with rumours that Fiorentina are finally willing to work out a deal.

Sunday, 14 August 2011

Conte wants Patience, Arsenal and Liverpool Draw Opening Day and Ganso Shops Around

Antonio Conte says that Juventus need more time after a goalless draw in their friendly against Real Betis. I like the way Juve have recruited, but I think they are probably a star or two off challenging for the Scudetto. Hopefully the management shows a bit of patience with the manager and the team and start planning next summers transfers.

I think Galliani has shown the way for Italian clubs in the transfer market. With much smaller revenues compared to Spain, England and even some German and French clubs, Italian clubs need to cast a wide net, start next summers negotiations the minute the current one closes, stick to a very strict budget and get creative with transfer payment plans.

The EPL kicked off last night. Arsenal were disappointing against Newcastle. Arsenal only managed 2 shots on target and to be honest, you wouldn't expect too much better from the team they fielded. Wenger needs to spend the transfer budget. Arsenal are a great example of a modern football club with a strong financial plan, but they aren't going to sustain it if they lose their best players because they never win anything.

The other big club to kick off last night was Liverpool who took on Sunderland and drew 1-1. I think the difference between Arsenal and Liverpool was that Liverpool showed promise of being a top 4 club, but looked a bit under done physically and the new players will still trying to gel. Arsenal were just a bit average. Typically of what they have been the last few years, they had a large portion of the possession and couldn't find a way of converting that into goals.

Santos' Ganso has been flirting with Milan for months now and it seemed only his current club was holding up a move all the other party's wanted. Now Ganso has turned the focus of his affection to Real Madrid, who are now his dream club. I think this means Milan are out. They weren't willing to pay Santos' demands when they were the only club involved. Now that Ganso is actively seeking out the attention of other clubs, Milan will have no chance in a bidding war.

The only question I have is what is Real Madrid's financial position? With the state of Europe's economies, surely the Spanish banks won't be as generous to the club as they have been in the past. With the economic hardships and the FFP rules coming into place I think there is a lot less money in the market. I think we saw a slight deflating of the transfer market bubble last summer and I expect that to continue. So with a smaller amount of money in the market, Madrid cant sell off a player or two to fully fund a move for Ganso. I think if Ganso wants a European move he might have to look at PSG or Man City

Saturday, 13 August 2011

EPL 2011/12 Preview - Status Quo, Money and the end of Wenger



The EPL season is about to kick-off. We all know the monolith that the EPL has become and that has good and bad consequences. The one thing nobody can argue with is that The EPL is the best league in the World when it comes to promotion and customer (fan) service.

So I am very excited about the new season and all that it brings. I won't give a full season preview (you can see good ones here, here and here), but here is a list of what I'll be watching out for this season.

EPL 2011/12

Arsenal - I think Arsene Wenger's time is just about up. I don't think he will get fired per se, but if he can't put a trophy in Arsenal's cabinet this season, he never will again. Fabregas and Nasri could both be gone by September, arguably Arsenal's two best midfielders. Add to that important players like Adebayor leaving in their prime or just before it. Arsenal is becoming a finishing academy. I expect them to miss the four and lose more players next summer.

Manchester Derbies - With City's money finally beginning to pay off in terms of results and trophies, the Manchester derby is becoming a real spectacle. I expect City to be a lot closer to first place for the entire season this year and United probably will be first for most of the year. This derby will be explosive and potentially decide who lifts the EPL title.

Fernando Torres - Torres is quickly becoming the symbol of all that is wrong with the finances of world football. Destined for greatness, his big money move to Liverpool was hampered by a string of injuries. Despite the injuries we still saw plenty of greatness from him amongst a whole lot of mediocrity from his team mates. A gazillion dollar transfer to Chelsea last winter didn't pay off and it seems Torres isn't the greatest fit for a Chelsea side still moulded in Jose Mourinho's image. The injuries have meant he has been overshadowed by David Villa up front in Spains conquests in the last 4 years. I hope Chelsea are shaped around Torres and he can really shine like he should.

Newcastle - Would be great to see them in the top half of the EPL again. They seem to have sold a lot of the players that got them promoted. I think if they can get the most out of Obertan and a couple of others they will live to fight another season.

QPR - There is a lot of hype around what QPR might be able to do. Most Expect them to avoid relegation comfortably and push for a safe mid-table position. I hope they play exciting football.

Tottenham - They beat my beloved Milan in the Champions League last season, so I will take pleasure in anything bad that happens to them. That said, I like Harry Redknapp and a few of the teams players. It will be interesting to see how they cope, desperately need to finish top 4 and get some more of that CL cash.

Liverpool - looks like selling Torres has done them wonders. The new ownership might make it easier for them to focus on football. The fact that they aren't playing any European football might make them dark horses in the EPL

My top 4 before a ball is kicked is; Manchester United, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea - in that order.

Friday, 12 August 2011

Milan version 2012 - King Ibra and Waiting for the Pharaoh

Without a doubt in my mind, Zlatan Ibrahimovic was the difference for Milan last season. The new manager, Max Allegri, was fantastic and a bunch of players had great seasons, including new boys Robinho, Boateng and van Bommel.

Everyone at Milan contributed last season, but without Zlatans amazing start to the season it wouldn't have been possible. He carried the team through while other new players settled in, while the team got used to a slightly different style and a very different focus tactically.

Ibra carried the team right up to Christmas. He was noticeably exhausted in the second half of the season, at which time Seedorf had stepped back in time 8 years, Abate had been transformed, the team was a solid unit and Galliani was bringing in winter re-enforcements that included van Bommel.


This year the team really starts to take on a different feel. Mexes and Taiwo have been brought in to finally create some depth to defence for the first time since the 2004 Scudetto. Some players have left the squad, noticeably Pirlo to Juventus on a free transfer, meaning the squad is smaller and more manageable than last season.

Below is the available positions in Allegri's 4312 and the players are ordered in who I think is most likely to get a start to who is least likely. Some players pop up in multiple positions.

GK - Abbiati, Amelia, Roma
DR - Abate, Zambrotta, Oddo, Bonera
DL - Taiwo, Antonini, Emanuelson, Zambrotta, Mexes
DC - Silva, Nesta, Mexes, Yepes, Bonera
DM - van Bommel, Ambrosini, Gattuso, Silva
MC - Boateng, Ambrosini, Gattuso, Flamini, Emanuelson, Seedorf, Silva
AM - Seedorf, Cassano, Boateng, Robinho, El Shaarawy
FC - Ibrahimovic, Pato, Robinho, Cassano, Inzaghi, El Shaarawy

So I think the first team would be

Abbiati
Abate - Silva - Nesta - Taiwo
Ambrosini - van Bommel - Boateng
Seedorf
Ibrahimovic - Pato

I don't think we will see this line up regularly, just in big games when they are all fit. I think Robinho will be used to keep Ibra and Pato fresh, I think that Mexes will play a lot to keep Nesta fit for the big games at the business end of the season and I think the midfield will be rotated, not just to keep it fresh but to provide slightly different characteristics depending on the opponent.

I think the choice most people will take offence to is that of Seedorf. This is just my best team when everyone is fit, I don't expect Seedorf to play everygame. If it where up to me Seedorf would have gone a long time ago, but he did play the trequartista role fantastically when Inter were closing in on us at the end of last season and I think with Allegri's formation Seedorf has time and space to create up front without running back to defend. Not that he can run any more, he will be a disaster further back in midfield this season.

Clearly Milan hope El Shaarawy will be the next amazing trequartista for Milan, following in the footsteps of Rui Costa and Kaka. He certainly has shown a lot of potential, but he isn't ready to take on the responsibility of that role in Serie A and Champions League in a season where expectations of the club are very high. I think Seedorf, Cassano, Boateng and Robinho will fill the role for the majority of the games while the little Pharaoh is gently exposed to life as a rossoneri star.

I think its a dynamic first team. The defence is solid, Ambrosini and Boateng can both attack and cover the fullbacks, Seedorf still has enough quality, Ibra will be Ibra and I think Pato will have a massive year now that he has real competition for a starting spot.

I also love our depth. We have lacked depth forever and a day. Below is what I think our team would be if the first XI were all injured:

Amelia
Zambrotta - Mexes - Yepes - Antonini
Flamini - Gattuso - Emanuelson
Cassano
Robinho - Inzaghi

It's a line up that will lose to Barcelona more often than not, but it will do a good job against the bottom half of Serie A.

So I think Milan is in a great spot going into this season. Another midfielder in the Boateng mode wouldn't go astray, but there is no need to break the bank to find them.

That said, there are some weaknesses to Milan that they will have to watch. If I was Allegri I would be worried about:

  • Left fullback. If Taiwo doesn't fit in there is no amazing replacement. We have enough cover, but the position wouldn't be a strength for the club
  • Goalkeeper. Abbiati has been outstanding for the last few years, but if his form drops or he gets injured, can Amelia and Roma do the role justice?
  • Oddo. He won't get a lot of playing time and he will whinge, could be disruptive.
  • Cassano. With Prandelli whispering sweet nothings in his ear about possibly being the Azzurri's hero at Euro's this summer, can Cassano be content with life at Milan. Even if he gets regular playing time he will be shifted around the front three positions.
  • Emanuelson. Not sure Allegri knows what to do with him. He will provide cover for left fullback and midfield, but is the uncertainty going to make him a liability when he is on the pitch?
  • Boateng. If he goes down the midfield loses a lot of speed and forward movement. I think there is enough speed for us on the widths and up front to trouble most teams, but can we challenge a Manchester United or Barcelona without Boateng?
I'm really looking forward to the season. I think we are set for a great start, despite the draw, and hopefully we can win another trophy.

Sunday, 7 August 2011

Milan Win Super Cup - Allegri Maintains Perfect Derby Record

Milan won this years Super Cup last night. The cup isn't usually considered very important, but the clubs VP, Adriano Galliani, insists it was better than winning the scudetto. I'm sure a few tifosi feel differently.
Milan coach, Max Allegri, did take the game very seriously. Throughout his first year in charge of Milan, he always put a focus on momentum. Allegri always puts demanded the team play with intensity and strive to win no matter how important the game is or isn't.

Milan went into the game with Mathieu Flamini, Philippe Mexes, Stephan El Shaarawy, Filippo Inzaghi and Taye Taiwo unavailable. Yet despite missing this amount of talent, the rossoneri bench consisted of Marco Amelia, Daniele Bonera, Marco Yepes, Massimo Ambrosini, Urby Emanuelson, Alexandre Pato and Antonio Cassano. It is a depth we have lacked for a very long time.

To compare, 2 years ago, at the start of the 2009-10, Milan were trounced by Inter in round 2 of the Serie A. That day, the bench was Flavio Roma, Ignazio Abate, Oguchi Onyewu, Massimo Ambrosini, Clarence Seedorf, Klass-Jan Huntelaar and Pippo Inzaghi.

Onyewu was never of Milan class, Abate was struggling to adjust to the right fullback position in a formation that left the fullbacks exposed, Ambrosini and Seedorf were struggling to find a spot as Leonardo attempted to do what Ancelotti had failed to do - find a way of turning Milan's Ronaldinho back into Barca's Ronaldinho circa 2006 - and Huntelaar was struggling to live up to his hype.

That team was also terribly balanced n the pitch. Pirlo and Ronaldinho not only couldn't play together, but they left the rest of the team terribly exposed to counter-attacks. Last night Milan, while not perfect, showed glimpses of the rigid, tough and energetic defence that made them the stingiest defence in Serie A last season.

And that's the difference between Allegri's Milan and the post-2007 Champions League Milan of Ancelotti and Leo. There is now a fantastic depth, made up of young and old players, and there is a formation that balances the strengths of the team.

The other noticeable difference is that the personality of the team. After the 2007 CL, it seemed as though the team was weary. Most of the key players had already won everything with the rossoneri and they where now stretched thin with little to prove. New players, like Boateng and Robinho, want to prove they can perform at the top level and have fun doing it. There is a determination to win, but also a light-heartedness that alleviates the pressure.

I think Milan will do well across all competitions this year. They might not win anything, but come March 2012, when the commentators are talking about who might win the Champions League, Serie A or Coppa Italia, I expect Milan to be one of the names mentioned.Link

Thursday, 6 January 2011

Presidential Pride

So, as far as I can figure, Adrian Mutu's agent told Fiorentina he wanted to leave and play for Cesena - Fiorentina said they'd choose who they sold him to - Mutu stormed out of training when he heard the news - Fiorentina now want to sue him if he doesn't do what he is told.

Obviously, Fiorentina are in melt down and Prandelli was much more important to the clubs success than we ever imagined. It's sad because they do have the talent to be a big team in Italy and they have a lot of youngsters so they had a big future ahead of them, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of players exiting very soon.

What I really want to talk about though, is the growing intolerance of the presidents and directors of Italian clubs towards their own players. It's not entirely new and it isn't across the board, but in the last 12 months we've seen Goran Pandev and Antonio Cassano forced out of their clubs by their presidents and now it seems Fiorentina are going to play hardball with Adrian Mutu.

Pandev left Lazio last January after a falling out with Lazio President Claudio Lotito. Pandev indicated that he wanted to leave Lazio, so Lotito had him frozen out of the squad and in the January transfer window Pandev's contract was terminated after he took legal action to have his Lazio contract terminated.

Cassano moved to Milan just days ago after he had a dispute with Sampdoria chairman, Riccardo Garrone, which end in Cassano calling Garrone a few choice words. Garrone took legal action to have Cassano's contract terminated, he failed, but Cassano took the hint and a move to Milan was organised in which Sampdoria probably lost money - though we don't know the full details of the move.

Now Mutu looks set to be forced out of Fiorentina. I'm not sure what Fiorentina's end game is here. Surely the relationship is irreconcilable now and there is no way that Mutu will don the gigliati jersey again. So I guess what they want to achieve is to stop Mutu going to Cesena who Fio are currently in a battle with to avoid relegation.

Fair enough on one level, but what do you really achieve? Is it really going to encourage other players to join the club when they see Mutu treated this way? Does it provide a great atmosphere in the dressing room during a relegation battle? Is it going to stop others looking for a transfer or is it just going to teach them that you want to leave you just have to be difficult and eventually the club will send you packing?

And I think that's the problem with the way Pandev, Cassano and Mutu have been dealt with. Players are now on alert - you want out of a club? Just piss off the club directors and they'll send you packing and your new club will hardly have to pay a dime.

Losing Pandev hasn't really hurt Lazio, they did ok last season and are tied second half way through this season. Who knows, maybe Sampdoria will flourish in life after Cassano and Maybe this Mutu saga will end with a new prosperous era for la viola.

I just think the implications for Italian football could be really bad if this becomes a trend and every January half a dozen star players are forced out of their team.

Wednesday, 5 January 2011

Winter Champions

I won't go into too much details of Milan's season so far, for that you can go here, here, here and here. I just wanted to give my general impressions of where the squad is at and where the season might end up for the rossoneri.

The thing that has struck me the most lately is the interchange between the front three under Allegri. Under Ancelotti and Leonardo the front three for Milan was fairly stagnate, granted they didn't have as much quality up front as Allegri has, but whenever I watch Milan lately I love watching the front three moving around tirelessly, sacrificing themselves when needed and playing some beautiful football.

Ibra has been a particular delight. Of course his goal scoring ability is fantastic and he will probably be the first Milan striker to score 20 league goals in a season since Shevchenko left for Chelsea, but it is his crossing that has particularly impressed me. Milan have seriously lacked the ability to cross the ball - even as far back as our 2007 Champions League success we weren't particularly adept at the skill. I think when Allegri plays Pirlo a bit wider and Ibra is following the ball to the wings we are as potent at crossing the ball as any team in Serie A.

The defence is still an issue. Leo's approach to our defensive woes was to throw everything forward and it worked for awhile, then teams figured out how to soak up our attacks and they killed us on the counter. Allegri's approach has been to provide more cover for the defence. Playing three defensive minded midfielders in front of the defence has provided a lot of protection at the back and most clubs struggle to work their way through Nesta, Silva and Abbiati. Though we are still weak on the wings, I don't think this will be a problem in Serie A, but I fear Tottenham will be able to expose it in the Champions League.

Players I have been impressed with are pretty similar to everyone else; Ibra, Robinho and Boateng have all made great impacts in their first season and it's been great to see guys like Gattuso and Abbiati return to something like their best on an extremely regular basis.

I think this team can win Serie A as it is. The two wild cards are injuries - which seem to be rampant in the last few weeks and Inter. I don't think Leo is a finished product as a manager yet, but Inter were treble winners last year and the team hasn't changed much. Leo might just bring the mood change to the Inter dressing room that will get them up to the standard they set last season.

I don't think Lazio can beat us, though I expect them to still be close for most of the season (what a disaster that we didn't sign Hernanes!) and I'm not convinced Napoli are strong enough yet to go the distance. Juve and Roma still seem a bit loose to me, but with Totti anything can happen and Roma are probably the only threat other than Inter.

Early-March to Mid-April is the tough period for Milan in Serie A, fingers crossed that the side can deal with that and the Champions League.

Saturday, 15 May 2010

Ciao Leo!


So Leo and Milan announced their 'mutual parting' and Milan continue to look for life after Ancelotti, Maldini and Kaka. The initial response from rossoneri tifosi has been one of panic. A common sentiment has been to call for stability; a belief that a manager with tenure safer than a professors will lead to the holy land.

It's understandable, change is always hard. Particularly when the change is from the summit of Europe to Italian mediocrity. The panickers claim that Ancelotti's reign is the prof in the pudding. The longest serving manager in the clubs history won 2 Champions League titles, a Scudetto and a Coppa Italia with Milan. Yet 3 of the 4 trophies came in the first 3 years. The last 5 years were more about being the bridesmaid than the bride and the last few years the club was more liked the scorned ex sitting in the back row pining for the past.

I understand that stability is important and can generate a long period of success, but the stability of constant success is more important than the stability of a constant manager. SAF seems to be the blue print for most clubs who want to stick with one manager until death-do-they-part. My contention is that Fergies rare ability to cut his stars for the good of the team allows him to rebuild teams.

New managers usually have this ruthlessness. They don't have the same emotional attachment that long serving managers establish with players and are more capable of picking players on merit - if they're a good manager.

Ancelotti sorely missed that ruthlessness at the end of his Milan tenure. Perhaps he was constricted by Silvio Berlusconi and Adriano Galliani, but there is no doubt in my mind that Ancelotti would have struggled to ever force his favorites to move on.

I think the model should be that each manager should be given clear outlines for success. For example the club could stipulate that a manager had to win at least one trophy every two years, or that they had to come in the top 3 and make it to the quarter finals of the Champions League each season as a minimum. If the targets aren't met the manager is sacked. Expectations are clearly defined.

Personally, the one thing I love about a new manager is the sense that anything could be possible. A new manager brings so many unknowns and as a fan you are able to dream of greatness based on uncertainty. After one season with Leo there was already a sense that perhaps the clubs mid-season streak was as good as it was going to get with Leo and that next season would be another disappointing grind.

Now we can live in hope. After two trophy-less seasons, hope is what keeps a tifoso warm at night.

Wednesday, 5 May 2010

10 Big Ideas For Milan - Part 2

6. Defence

Milan's great sides under the Berlusconi Era have always had great defensive players. Whether it be Franco Baresi, Paolo Maldini and Co in the back-line or Gennaro Gattuso and Massimo Ambrosini in the midfield.

Milan's defence hasn't leaked goals in the last few seasons. In fact, in Serie A, Milan have averaged between 35-40 goals a season recently - about one goal a game on average. Which isn't that different to teams that have been regularly winning trophies in that period.*

Over the last 3 seasons since the 2007 Champions League Final Milan haven't necessarily done better against small teams or big teams, they haven't done better at home or away. Milan have struggled when they have conceded 0-1 goals. They've been one of the most successful teams when they've conceded 2 or more goals in a game.

My belief is that Milan rely to heavily on the hope that their attack will fire on all cylinders. When it doesn't, Milan don't have the quality at the back to ground out results. The defenders are old and injury prone and the midfielders don't have the consistency or fitness to provide support to the back.

Defenders are also a lot cheaper and building a team around a solid defence would fit a responsible economical model for the club.

7. Tifosi

The club need to show more respect to the tifosi. They provide the atmosphere that can urge the players on during matches and they provide the revenue directly through merchandise and match tickets and indirectly by attracting sponsors.

Milan have been to dismissive of the fans and have at times even been so bold as to tell the fans how to behave. If the club want a tifosi that fill the stands regularly and provide a great atmosphere they have to keep the fans happy. That means:
- Exciting signings. Not necessarily the Ronaldinho's, the fans don't constantly need a string of superstars like at Madrid, but players that give the fans the belief that the club is moving towards a strong future. Players like Pato, but they don't even have to be that expensive.
- Not talking down to the fans through the media.
- Being able to compete regularly at a top level
- Action. Galliani and Berlusconi complain a lot about a great many things, but rarely do anything to change those things.

8. Italian Identity

As a Milan fan, I personally have nothing wrong with foreigners playing for the club. There is a long history of Swedish, Dutch, Brazilian, French and African players doing extraordinary things for the club as well as players from across the globe.

However it does seem as though an Italian identity is important to the Club and its fans as part of its local rivalry with Inter. Milan's preference for Italians is what created the split that led to Inter.

The club needs to be aware of the entirety of its history and embrace it.

9. Great Coaching Staff

I don't know what goes on in training and how good each individual coach is, but it does seem that that coach positions have become jobs for ex-players rather than crucial parts of the squads development and performance.

If an ex-player suits a role than that's great, but the club needs to ensure its coaching staff is as capable as possible

10. Fight on all Fronts

I understand that in a given season the squad won't be able to challenge on all fronts and will have to focus on a specific title to chase, but we can't get caught up in trying to build a squad specifically for one competition again.

Yes the Champions League is the best competition and we should always have it as our top priority. However, if we don't qualify for it we can't win it and that means we need a squad strong enough to compete in the rigors of the League.



Things change quickly in football. It might seem as though we are a long way off the top at the moment, but a few changes could see us lifting trophies once again.

Tuesday, 20 April 2010

John Terry Affair - A Cautionary Tale

Let us forget the morale dimension of John Terry's affair with a teammates girlfriend. Terry's off-field activities have clearly affected his on-field performance. His recent decline should be a warning to all those youngsters who laugh at their managers when told to live a simple life and not get caught up in the celebrity of being a football player.

Terry's rise to prominence started in 2000-2001 when he started to establish himself as a starter at Chelsea after coming through their youth system. Chelsea had just made the quarter finals of the Champions League the previous season but after big spending from manager Gianluca Vialli started poorly and Vialli was sacked. Under new manager Claudio Ranieri, Terry established himself as the club rebuilt.

Terry captained Chelsea for the first time at the end of 2001, 2 days before his 21st Birthday. Terry's star was on the rise and in 2003 he made his England debut. He went on to captain Chelsea to consecutive EPL titles and in 2008 succeeded David Beckham as England captain.

Life was good for Terry, despite missing a penalty in a CL final shoot-out against rivals Manchester United. At the start of the 2009-10 season he was captain of an England side that was tipped to have an impact at the 2010 World Cup under decorated manager Fabio Capello, Chelsea had a new manager in Carlo Ancelotti and the club seemingly had a stable and bright future for the first time since Jose Mourinho left.

Then news broke of Terry's indiscretions - Capello stripped him of the national team captaincy and his form hasn't recovered since. Terry has looked a disheveled man. In the high-pace EPL the frustrated looking Terry has made multiple errors that have cost his team a bunch of points and in recent weeks his tackling has been terrible.

It's clear that the outfall from his actions in his personal life have affected his professional life. Ancelotti has defended his charge by saying that the media are reading too much into Terry's performances since the affair became public knowledge, but it is Ancelotti's style to say everything is fine even as the boat is clearly sinking - or bridge crumbling, as the case may be.

For years now people have blamed Ronaldinho's decline on partying, but the Terry Affair proves that you don't have to be a bad boy to ruin your performances on the pitch - one really bad decision can be enough to shake your confidence and motivation and at this level if you're not mentally 100% you're nothing.

Torres' Loyalty Questioned

"Fernando Torres has denied putting country before club after he was ruled out for the rest of Liverpool’s campaign having undergone knee surgery in Spain."

Is this really a complaint? I say good on him. Anyone who puts winning the Europa League above the World Cup doesn't deserve to be in football.

Though Torres himself denies considerations of club or country played any part in the decision and that the injury had simply progressed to the point where he had to go under the knife.

Monday, 19 April 2010

Torrid Treatment


Let me start by saying that I am aware of my bias here, but if I was Fernando Torres I would be out the door ASAP. I would have my agent shopping me all over town and pushing Liverpool to let me go right now.

Liverpool knew about Torres' injury early in the season and knew the extent of it and the risks of forcing the player to play through the injury. Now perhaps at the start of the season it was understandable to try and push through the injury, but everyone known for along time now that even Torres couldn't pull the club out of another Rafa-made disaster season.

Now Torres has finally been sent under the knife and could miss the World Cup because of it. Torres is 26 and this was probably his best chance to perform at a world cup and, considering Spain's current flock, his best chance to help Spain win their first World Cup. Next time around the likes of Xavi and Iniesta, Villa and Alonso, as well as Torres himself will be 30 or older. The backline will probably lose Marchena, Puyol and Capdevilla; who are all over 30 and have a combined 179 caps for Spain.

For Torres being made to miss a World Cup by the bungling of his own club has to be up their with being forced to miss your own wedding or the birth of your own child because of work. It could perhaps be the final straw. The Spaniard left his boyhood club Atletico Madrid for success. I'm sure
that if Madrid had the capability to win trophies Torres would have stayed - He was captain at just 19 and had a deep affection for the club.

So what is keeping him at Liverpool? Is he willing to stay and help the club during a lean patch or does he want to move along while in his prime? If it were me I would move in a heartbeat. If he does move it will have to be to a big club from one of the big 3 domestic leagues.

I think you can rule out English clubs. Of the clubs that could qualify for next years CL, Tottenham aren't a step up from Liverpool, Man City have too many forwards and I can't see Liverpool selling to Chelsea, Arsenal or Man Utd.

In Spain, Madrid is a massive no and I don't think Barca would be interested. If Barca did buy Torres they would have to sell a player. I don't think they would sell Ibra and I don't think they could play Ibra and Torres in their 4-3-3, which is so central to their identity, So I can't see them spending the dollars for such a large risk.

In Italy, Milan are a definite option. Borriello, Huntelaar and Inzaghi haven't gelled well with Pato and Ronaldinho up top and Torres would certainly add much needed potency. Its questionable as to whether Milan have the money or will to bring Torres to the club, but Huntelaar could be used in a swap + cash deal. The only other question is does Torres believe that Milan have enough talent to win trophies with him?

Juve would be another option. They don't have CL next season and they don't have a manager for next year yet, but there's enough bits and pieces there to convince Torres they could win with him.

The only other clubs in Italy that are big enough are Inter and Roma. Roma probably don't have enough money but would be a great fit. Torres might just give Totti enough space to perform at his best, though he might not like having to share the spotlight with a straniero. And Roma have certainly looked the goods under Ranieri. Inter don't have the room for another striker and I don't think Torres would enjoy the style of play at the blue half of Milan.

So Torres might just stay in Liverpool because of a lack of attractive options with the cash to buy him, but if he does leave I think his mostly likely destinations in order(with my probabilities of him moving to the club)are:

1 Juve (3/1)
2 Milan (4/1)
3 Barca (6/1)
4 Man United (21/2)
5 Chelsea (16/1)
6 Barca (17/1)
7 Inter (18/1)
8 Arsenal (30/1)
9 Roma (40/1)
10 Real Madrid (1000/1)

Wednesday, 14 April 2010

The Replay Delusion

Chelsea continued their end of season push by defeating Bolton to make the not-as-prestigious-as-it-used-to-be FA Cup Final. During the match Chelsea's not-as-revered-as-he-used-to-be-captain John Terry got away with what appeared to be a handball in the box.

The incident has once again got some talking about the introduction of video referee's. The thing that makes me laugh is that video replay advocates speak of it as some magic cure all that will absolve us of all our officiating sins. This flies in the face of the realities of the practical use of video replays.

My first argument against the video ref is that it fails to fulfill its basic promise of correcting bad decisions. Born and bred in NSW I have always had a soft spot for Rugby League and I feel that the video replays have actually created more complaints about refereeing decisions. Refs that use replays too often are bagged for wasting time and those that use it sparringly and miss decisions that could have 'easily' been made correctly by the video ref are subjected to abuse. However, the most common complaint is that the video refs still manage to get things wrong and that slow-motion replays can actually make it much harder to make a decision.

My second argument is against those who believe video replays can be introduced sparingly. At least these people are willing to acknowledge that constant stoppages in football could destroy the character of the game - what they fail to see is that video refereeing always consumes a sport. To use Rugby League as an example again; when video replays were first introduced they were solely to be used for try-scoring decisions. Now video refs are expected to relay live information as the game unfolds and every minor 50-50 call can be sent upstairs for review.

My third argument is that it can be missed used to promote gamesmanship. Roger Federer has admitted to asking for replays just so he can get a rest and regain composure when he is in a tricky situation. In Rugby League players regularly pressure refs into checking the replay, not because they think the decision will be overturned, but rather as a cynical ploy to gain a rest.

If I had to reduce my argument to one sentence it would be this: The video referee is still a human. In other words he is still susceptible to the same errors the on-field officials are and issues with camera angles and the distortions of slow motion perhaps make a video referee even more prone to error.

To be fair, the video review system seems to work in American football - though i think the unique set play nature of the sport makes it much easier to work than in free-flowing sports like football. Though the NFL still have their fair share of controversy surrounding the use of replays despite having a few cracks at perfecting the system.

I submit the following as evidence against the introduction of the video replay in football:




"Video analysis could never speak to intent... The umpire is in the best position to make an inference to intent and it's a decision that is properly placed there"


Controversial video ref's call slams door shut on Warriors

"Today I lost the first set in the last point because I saw, and the referee (umpire) knows because he saw the ball outside," Nadal told reporters. "The mark of the ball was still on court and it was outside but in the challenge it was in, so that's unbelievable. I say to him, 'look, the ball is out', and he say 'I know'. The truth is put Hawkeye on clay this year and we will see. You will see what's happening with Hawkeye sometimes."

People are always talking about how there aren’t enough characters in the game but the more technology gets involved in tennis, the fewer personalities will show through.